Who’s going to take the upper hand for a spot in the 2025 Champions League final in Munich-Paris or Arsenal? After 90 minutes (or maybe more) at the Emirates, we’ll have our first answers. PSG, fresh off yet another Ligue 1 title but coming off a rare loss to Nice, have set their sights fully on Europe. Arsenal, meanwhile, are riding high after knocking out Real Madrid and are now the favorites according to Opta (30% chance to win the trophy).
Probable Lineups & Betting Odds
Luis Enrique should go with Donnarumma – Hakimi, Marquinhos (c), Pacho, Mendes – Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz – Doué (or Barcola), Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia. PSG’s win is priced at @3.50.
For Arsenal, Arteta is missing Partey (suspended) and Jorginho (injured), so we’ll likely see Raya – Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly – Odegaard (c), Rice, Merino – Saka, Trossard, Martinelli. Arsenal’s win is at @2.15.
If you’re feeling a draw, it’s offered at @3.45.
Head-to-Head and Key Stats
– Arsenal and PSG are meeting for the sixth time. Arsenal’s unbeaten in the previous five (2 wins, 3 draws). PSG has never beaten Arsenal in Europe.
– PSG have lost 5 of their last 6 away games at English clubs in the Champions League.
– Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 8 Champions League matches (7 wins, 1 draw), their second-best run ever after 2005/06 (when they reached the final).
– Arsenal have spent 53% of their Champions League minutes this season ahead on the scoreboard-the highest in the competition. They’ve only been behind 6% of the time, and never in the knockout rounds.
– PSG have made 87% of their Champions League pressings at high intensity, the highest rate in the tournament. João Neves leads all players with 715 high-intensity pressings.
– Four PSG players average at least two successful dribbles per 90 minutes (Doué, Kvaratskhelia, Barcola, Dembélé)-that’s the most of any team this season.
Players to Watch
– Bukayo Saka has 9 goals and 6 assists in 16 Champions League matches for Arsenal. That’s the best ever for an English player in his first two seasons in the competition.
– Saka to score tonight? That’s at @2.90.
– Ousmane Dembélé is involved in 10 Champions League goals this season (7 goals, 3 assists). He could match Mbappé’s PSG record of 11 goal involvements in a single UCL campaign.
– Dembélé to score? That’s at @3.15.
Tonight’s Bet: Fewer Than 1.5 Goals @3.40
Two teams with a history of choking, both under pressure? Honestly, this could be a cagey, low-scoring affair. 1-0 Arsenal? 1-0 PSG? Even a 0-0? All those scorelines work for this bet. Sometimes, the defenses and goalkeepers steal the show, even with all that attacking talent on the pitch.
Sources
– Opta, Champions League stats 2025
